ИСТИНА

The storm events in three inner seas are examined in connection with the main atmosphere ‘stormogenic’ patterns grouped into the circulation types (CTs) individually for each sea, and their changes in present climate as well as future climate projections. A calendar of storms for the modern climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments for 1948-2011. On the base of this calendar, a catalogue of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared for CTs from NCEP/NCAR dataset. Then SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm employing empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. For every CT detailed analysis of their seasonal and interannual changes, their role in storm events formation is analyzed. An increase of the storm CTs’ frequency in the second part of 20th century is shown to be in a good agreement with such teleconnection circulation patterns as Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian blocking. Noticeable increase of storm CTs’ frequency in case of RCP8.5 scenario of CMIP5 is shown on the base of CMIP5 models ensemble.