ИСТИНА

The Holocene vegetation dynamics in the forest steppe zone of European Russia were assessed using analogue-based methods of quantity reconstructions using modern and fossil pollen data and MODIS satellite images. The main steps of our study are (1) creation of the reference dataset consisting of 965 surface pollen spectra and associated satellite (MODIS)-based estimates of woody cover density, (2) checking the accuracy of regional woody cover reconstructions using the “Best Modern Analog” approach applied to the reference modern dataset, and (3) application the method for reconstruction of vegetation disturbance in the key-region, located in the Upper Don River basin in the central part of European Russia. The accuracy of reconstructions was tested by leave-one-out cross-validation. The results of tests was well but imperfect (R2=0.57 and SEE= 10.8%), however it is sufficient for reconstruction of major changes in forest vegetation. The obtained results show that signals of anthropogenic changes in the vegetation in the forest-steppe zone and human-induced fires are clearly pronounced in the Neolithic and Bronze Ages, however human impact on plant cover was not significant until 2400 cal. yr. BP. Reconstructions of total woody cover show a good agreement with land-use history of the territory. An extensive agriculture during the periods of human occupation resulted in decrease in forest coverage, when the territory was abandoned forests recovered their areas. Large-scale landscape changes and the degradation of natural vegetation occurred in the Medieval time and become conspicuous over the last two centuries.