ИСТИНА

Background. The Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) is a land-locked country in Central Asia. Livestock breeding is one of the main industries of the RK. Historically, the RK has been free from African swine fever (ASF) and Peste des petits ruminants (PPR). Here, we used a variety of spatial analysis methods, to identify those regions within the RK that are most susceptible to the introduction and subsequent spread of PPR and ASF. Material and Methods. To evaluate the susceptibility of RK districts to an ASF introduction, we applied a conjoint analysis that elicitated the opinion of a group of experts in relation to the extent at which relevant epidemiological factors influence the risk for ASF introduction into disease-free regions. With regard to PPR, we developed a spatial regression model trained using PPR outbreak data from China, 2014-2020, considering a number of socio-economic and environmental factors. The model was then transferred to the RK to reveal those districts in which conditions may be most appropriate for PPR outbreaks. Results. Share of pigs in backyard holdings, density of pig population and wild boar, and a common border with ASF-infected countries were the most influencing risk factors for ASF. Two clusters of districts at highest risk for ASF were identified in northern and south-eastern RK, respectively. Susceptible population density, transportation network and landscape were the most influencing factors for PPR outbreaks. Three clusters of districts at highest risk for PPR were identified in eastern, western, and southern RK, respectively. Conclusion. Results suggest that risk is heterogeneously distributed for both diseases in RK. Results here will help to define a national strategy to prevent the introduction of ASF and PPR in the RK from infected neighbouring countries. Keywords: Kazakhstan, emerging animal diseases, spatial risks Funding source: This work was conducted as a part of scientific research by the Agro-Industrial Complex under the Scientific-Technical program “Scientific basics of the veterinary wellbeing and food safety”, budgetary program #267, Research Project BR06249242