ИСТИНА

Natural focal infections present a permanent threat to human health in the forestry areas of the Russian Far East along the Sino-Russian border. The incidence of diseases and its pathogens’ range may vary due to changes of climate, land cover and anthropogenic activity. The objective of this study is to model and analyze the distribution of select en-vironment-related diseases’ incidence with regard to various climatic, landscape and so-cio-demographic factors. The following tick-borne and rodent-borne diseases were con-sidered: tick-borne encephalitis, tick-borne borrelioses (Lyme disease), tick-borne rick-ettsiosis and Hantavirus hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). The study re-gion includes four entities of the Russian Federation bordering China (namely Amur region, Zabaikalsky and Khabarovsk krais and Jewish autonomous oblast). Disease in-cidence data at the municipality level, as well as exact locations of pathogens registration for the period 2004–2020 were obtained from official sources. For revealing the disease incidence change patterns, mathematical-geographical techniques of Forest Based Clas-sification and Regression, and Ecological Niche modeling were applied. The special climatic indicators calculated according to the data of Russian Research Institute of Hy-drometeorological Information - World Data Center (RIHMI-WDC), as well as ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data were used among the other environmental factors. The modeling results demonstrated a stronger effect of landscape and socio-economic indicators on the observed distribution of the study diseases’ incidence than of climatic factors. In particular, the relationship between the diversity of land cover, the level of socio-economic development of municipalities and the level of incidence of modeled diseases was revealed. For HFRS, an increased favorability of the southern study area coincides with grass and crop classification types of land cover. This could indicate the conditions for rodent habitat and reproduction including the connection with food sources. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation project No. 21-47-00016 and the Development Program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of Lomonosov Moscow State University "The future of the planet and global environ-mental changes"