ИСТИНА

The Earth system is highly variable and only partly sufficiently predictable. This predictability is hampered, though, by the occurrence of extreme events that are either poorly or insufficiently observed or badly understood. Extreme events are hazards to the use of the coastal zone, and cover winds, waves, currents, rain- and snowfall. They manifest as storms, surges, floods and avalanches. Using available observations and model simulations we can calculate the probability of these hazards. Only when these extreme events impact on people, infrastructure, and land use they are considered as risks. In this case they have a considerable effect on peoples’ life and the economy. Estimating the risk enables the user, that is people and authorities affected, to prepare and react to the risk of natural hazards. Here we see an end-to-end approach in close interaction with the authorities to localize, individualize and quantify the risk. This requires a constant dialogue on town- and land-planning, emergency preparations and planning. And additional domain opens with the consideration of the effects of climate change as they directly or indirectly change the environment and its use. At NRAL we identified seven high risk regions in Western Russia, and calculated the probability of the occurrence of individual and compound extreme events in the region. Using a variety of forcing fields, in part based on IPCC scenarios, we estimated their impact. Local and regional assessments have been published and in part are discussed with the relevant authorities. A prototype Risk Atlas is being prepared for the region of Krasnodarskij Krajn, a region prone to a multitude of hazards with intensive and very variable use. It combines existing information on natural hazards, economic and infrastructure information and maps risks at locations in this region. We plan to extend this kind of summary information to all other regions considered, adapted to the individuality of the region.