ИСТИНА

Physically based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina river basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period of 2000-2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970-1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approach (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of the climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emission A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation up to 15% the volume of flow for flood period can increase up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature.