ИСТИНА

Introduction Subject. The problem of prudential monetary policy is crucial in a globalized world and in unfavorable economic conditions. One of the mitigating and prudential methods of monetary policy regulation is inflation targeting, which deserves special attention nowadays. Analysis of empirical and theoretical researches about inflation targeting and deep qualitative analysis of the possibility of implementing inflation targeting regime is useful for assessing the relevance and opportunities for application of this regime of monetary policy regime in each country. In the transition to a floating exchange rate and an inflation targeting regime in Russia this subject is particularly important. To optimize the process of transition to inflation targeting in Russia and to avoid hasty steps it is necessary for monetary authorities to analyze other countries' experience of the transition to an inflation targeting. Goals. Comprehensive analysis of short-term and medium-term results of transition to a floating exchange rate regime as a requirement of inflation targeting policy in Russia, verification of the specifics transition to inflation targeting in developed and developing countries and especially in Russia. Results. Specific of the transition to inflation targeting in developed and developing countries are found, these specific is useful for Russian experience. The results of empirical studies of foreign authors in the field of evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting policy are analyzed. Application of foreign experience in inflation targeting to Russian economic model and estimation short-term results of transition to inflation targeting in Russia are connected. Findings. It is concluded that the process of transition to inflation targeting in developing countries is very different from the developed countries. Significant specificity of emerging economies requires prudential approach (taking into account macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions) in preparation for the transition to inflation targeting regime, as well as the combination of this regime of monetary policy and other economic instruments and measures. The process of transition to inflation targeting has not been finished yet and to watch medium-term results it is necessary to work on analysis and monitoring modern economic events. I am going to summarise full-dress results of this subject in my thesis, now I can only indicate the urgency of the problem, explain specifics of short-term results and anticipate future results. Short-term results of transition to inflation targeting in Russia (2014-2016) Now we can see short-term results of moving toward floating exchange rate regime as a requirement for inflation targeting policy. And these results are not positive: inflation increased rapidly, pace of the economic growth dropped down, geopolitical tensions did not stop public confidence in the monetary policy decreased, oil prices were too low and macroeconomic conditions have remained unfavorable. All these negative consequences were caused by unfavorable economic and geopolitical conditions. The Bank of Russia moved to a floating exchange rate regime in November 2014, when the exchange rate was an extremely volatile and the ruble was weak. There were speculations on the currency market and economic growth stopped. Unthinkable step of the Bank of Russia further weakened the ruble and ultimately undermined the confidence of economic agents in monetary policy. In 2015-2016 pace of the economic growth in Russia was too low, inflation was more than 12% per year, household’s real income decreased and geopolitical tensions (military actions in Syria, relations with Ukraine, anti-Russian sanctions and other) did not stop. Medium-term results of transition to inflation targeting in Russia (2017-2020) In modern stage (the nearest 2-3 years) we will see medium-term results of moving to floating exchange rate regime and inflation targeting policy and this subject is interesting from scientific view. After negative currency shocks in the short-term, economic conditions started to improve: speed of inflation growth in the economy has slowed down, Russian economic system got accustomed to anti-Russian sanctions and the low level of the ruble, the development of non-oil industries has increased. Moreover all economic agents started to adapt to the new economic and geopolitical environment – it is one of the most important step for economic recovery. Economic results of recent 2-3 years may affect future economic and monetary policy in Russia in the long-term and improve development of the Russian economic system as a whole. There are different additional monetary measures and instruments (which researches and monetary authorities have developed not long ago) to achieve higher economic performance and to raise the role of our country on the world arena. And the work on additional improvements by the Government and the Bank of Russia should contribute to the development of our country toward this goal. The common policy of the Bank of Russia and the Government should not contradict each other. Conclusion and possible development of research Key results of this short article are connected with the importance of deep researches of key tendencies in monetary process, analysis of foreign experience in moving to inflation targeting, building of econometric models and monitoring the latest economic events. All these directions of researches can be useful for monetary authorities in conducting healthy and prudential monetary policy. Deep studies of Russian economic scientific members should pay high attention to issues of Russian monetary policy and promote healthy development of monetary system in our country. Inflation targeting is a very effective monetary regime (as the alternative to money supply targeting and interest rate targeting) and movement to this regime can optimize economic environment in Russia as a whole. We estimated that in the short term, this policy led to negative consequences. However on the modern stage the Bank of Russia promote the recovery of monetary system and in nearest 2-3 years this monetary performance can improve rapidly. This study makes a little summary of a big analytical work and shows prospects of future researches. I hope that after a several years we will see additional research of medium-term results of inflation targeting.