Oncoming aridization of the main Grain-Producing Region in Central Eurasia

Dronin, N.M.; Telnova, N.O.; Kirilenko, A.P.; Milanova, E.V.; Kalutskova, N.N.

Авторы: Dronin N.M., Telnova N.O., Kirilenko A.P., Milanova E.V., Kalutskova N.N.
Сборник: Land Use/Cover Change in Selected Regions in the World
Том: 10
Глава в коллективной монографии
Год издания: 2015
Место издания: Hokkaido University of Education, Japan
Первая страница: 8
Последняя страница: 22
Аннотация: The main goal of the paper is to investigate matching of GMCs modeling with observable change of bioproductivity of principal agricultural zone of Central Eurasia during the last 30 years. Grain-growing belt of forest-steppes and steppes in Central Eurasia, shared by Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, spreading from the Carpathians to the Altay Mountains offers significant but underutilized grain-production potential. These three countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) have recently reemerged as the leading grain exporters [FAOSTAT 2013]. Understanding impacts of climate change on the future productivity of this region is essential for predicting its future potential as a major grain supplier. However, several studies based on coupling climate and crop models indicate that agro-ecological potential of the grain-producing zone of Central Eurasia may decrease because of higher growth of temperature as compared with modest increase of precipitation and more frequent of droughts. Compared with the historical climate, in the 2020s the temperature in the agricultural zones, averaged over the GCM projections, will increase by 1.5 °C on average, with higher increase in the Siberian South region. In the 2050s, the temperature change in the regions continues to follow this pattern (fig1). Precipitation demonstrates high variability, with a greater increase in Siberia and North-West regions, a smaller increase in the European South region, and a decrease in the Transcaucasia region. Annual precipitation will increase by 41-51 mm in Siberian South regions (fig.2), regions, and decrease by 22-55 mm in Transcaucasia and European South [Dronin, Kirilenko, 2011]. The same spatial trend is also projected for daily average precipitation (fig.2). Our research shows that observed dynamic of bioproductivity in forest-steppe and steppe zones confirms deterioration of climate in this principal agricultural area of Central Eurasia.
Добавил в систему: Миланова Елена Валентиновна

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Oncoming aridization of the main Grain-Producing Region in Central Eurasiaстатья

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