Аннотация:
Technosphere fires is one of the most significant threats to sustainable socio-economic development of
the country. Their annual incidence exceeds 100 thousand cases, and the damage is tens of billions of
rubles. Correlation analysis of long - term statistical series of the frequency of fires and number of climatic,
socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the regions of Russia has allowed to detail the most
significant. The most important of these is the number of population of the region. Among others, the
duration and severity of the cold period, the level of general and teenager crime, the proportion of the
number of population living in institutions for the elderly, the ratio of per capita incomes with subsistence
minimum, the coefficient of the migration growth/decline of the number of population, the level of
unemployment and others. Author’s mathematical model, built on the base of twenty-year time series of
statistical data makes possible to construct a baseline scenario of the change the frequency of technospheric
fires of the Russian Federation regions using as the main variable the changes of the number of population
of the region in time. The analysis of the impact of the above-mentioned additional characteristics of the
number of the region population to the frequency technospheric fires is made.