Экстремумы скорости ветра в Арктике

Кислов, А.В.; Матвеева, Т.А.; Платонов, В.С.

Авторы: Кислов А.В., Матвеева Т.А., Платонов В.С.
Журнал: Фундаментальная и прикладная климатология
Том: 2
Год издания: 2015
Первая страница: 63
Последняя страница: 80
Аннотация: Changes in the extreme wind speed along the Arctic coast (from the Kola Peninsula, north part of the Scandinavia to the Taimyr Peninsula) were investi- gated through an extreme value analysis of 10-m wind speed obtained from the 20th Century Reanalysis dataset and wind simulation of the INM-CM4 climate model dataset as well as observed data from selected stations. The analysis yielded volume of observed samples of wind speed extreme is a mixture of two sets of variables, suggesting that the distribution of each component can be statistically modeled using the Weibull distribution. Taking into account specific metaphoric terminology, they are marked as the black swans and dragons. However, modelled wind speed extremes (both the reanalysis data and INM-CM4 data) consist of only swans; furthermore, atmospheric models well simulate the quantiles describing the black swans. Dissimilarity of the dragons and the black swans can reach up to 10–30%. It means that such models typically underestimate wind speed maxima. Apart from, this evidence provides a clue that special mechanism of a dragon does not repro- duced by models with a medium spatial resolution. To assess, to what extent the mesoscale high detailed the limited area model can simulate dragon-type anomalies we use the COSMO-CLM model to study several cases. It could simulate anomalies of wind speed approaching to recorded values. However, the problem of under- standing of mechanism of pronounced wind speed extremes remains open.
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