Аннотация:The investigation devoted to development of new runoff forecast methods in modern climate
conditions on the example of floods on the Sukhona river near Velikiy Ustyug. The main purpose
of the research is creation a new scheme of assimilation and application of initial (in situ)
and model data (COSMO-Ru and SnoWE) for a hydrological model ECOMAG (the model of
runoff formation - author Motovilov Yu.G., Institute of Water Problem of RAS). For analysis
of flood characteristics, the most promising method is the method of synthesizing models of
the hydrometeorological cycle. Initial meteorological data for the hydrological model ECOMAC
were obtained from in-situ observations and (or) the mesoscale atmospheric circulation model
COSMO-Ru and information about snow and snow cover characteristics were obtained from
the SnoWE with different spatial steps. The main focus of this research is creation of cord
between the hydrological (ECOMAG) and the meteorological (COSMO-Ru) models and cord
between ECOMAG and the snow model. The second purpose is comparison of snow cover from
ECOMAG and SnoWE for the research territory. Moreover, we have to launch of the hydrological
model on the COSMO-Ru grids. This approach can be effective for analyzing of possible extremehydrometeorological events and allows to solve diverse problems associated with the flooding of the territory, both in the short-term forecast mode and for various scenario simulations. At the
same time, the combination of different models (hydrological, atmospheric and snow cover) are
expected to lead to a loss of accuracy when moving from one level to another and requires the
improvement of modeling techniques.
