Climatic Variations in the Arctic, North Atlantic, and the Northern Sea Route., Doklady Earth Sciencesстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 18 марта 2016 г.
Аннотация:We demonstrate that a correlation exists between the tendencies in the climatic variations in the Arctic and oscillations of the oceanic circulation intensity in the North Atlantic. We present the results illustrating reliable reproduction of the Arctic ice concentration using a model of the general ocean circulation under prescribed atmospheric forcing based on the NCEP reanalysis data during the period from 1948 to 2009. We show that the decrease in the intensity of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (ATC) that started in the beginning of the 21st century may provide evidence of a possible change in the ice concentration in the Arctic. A scenario of the inertial forecast obtained under the prescribed atmospheric forcing confirms this and demonstrates the tendency to an increase in the ice concentration in the Arctic up to 2020 with its further decrease.