Comparative study of three probabilistic methods for seismic hazard analysis: case studies of Sochi and Kamchatkaстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 17 июня 2021 г.
Аннотация:This study examines the effect of the procedures used in three different probabilistic seismichazard analysis (PSHA) methods for estimating the rates of exceedance of groundmotion. To evaluate the effect of these procedures, the Cornell–McGuire and Parametric-Historic methods, and the method based on Monte Carlo simulations are employed, andthe seismic source model, based on spatially smoothed seismicity, is used in the calculations.Two regions in Russia were selected for comparison, and seismic hazard maps wereprepared for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The results indicate that the choice of aparticular method for conducting PSHA has relatively little effect on the hazard estimates.The Cornell–McGuire method yielded the highest estimates, with the two other methodsproducing slightly lower estimates. The variation among the results based on the threemethods appeared to be virtually independent of the return period. The variation in theresults for the Sochi region was within 6%, and that for the Kamchatka region was within10%. Accordingly, the considered PSHA methods would provide closely related results forareas of moderate seismic activity; however, the difference among the results would apparentlyincrease with an increase in seismic activity.