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On the Probability Distribution of Sea Level Changes in the Caspian Seaстатья
- Автор: Kislov Alexander
- Журнал: Pure and Applied Geophysics
- Год издания: 2020
- Издательство: Springer Nature
- Местоположение издательства: Switzerland
- DOI: 10.1007/s00024-020-02598-7
- Аннотация: The Caspian Sea (CS) undergoes significant multiscalevariations in sea level. Based on empirical evidence (rednoise-like behavior) and general ideas about temporal dynamicallaws related to massive inertial objects, the observed changes of CSsea level represent a form of non-linear ‘‘self-induced’’ behavior.From this perspective, the mathematical model for this behavior isrepresented by the Fokker–Planck equation, the solution for whichallows calculation of a probability distribution function (PDF) forCS sea level variations. For verification, the PDF is compared withan empirical histogram calculated using palaeohydrological datacovering the last millennium. Despite the scatter, there are similaritiesbetween the two functions. In particular, both functionshave a non-Gaussian asymmetric structure.
- Добавил в систему: Кислов Александр Викторович