Mesoscale high-resolution modeling of extreme wind speeds over western water areas of the Russian Arctic

Platonov, V.S.; Kislov, A.V.

Авторы: Platonov Vladimir S., Kislov Alexander V.
Журнал: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Том: 48
Год издания: 2016
Издательство: IOP Publishing
Местоположение издательства: [Bristol, UK], England
DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/48/1/012007
Аннотация: A statistical analysis of extreme weather events over coastal areas of the RussianArctic based on observational data has revealed many interesting features of wind velocitydistributions. It has been shown that the extremes contain data belonging to two differentstatistical populations. Each of them is reliably described by a Weibull distribution. Accordingto the standard terminology, these sets of extremes are named ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’.The ‘dragons’ are responsible for most extremes, surpassing the ‘black swans’ by 10 – 30 %.Since the data of the global climate model INM-CM4 do not contain ‘dragons’, the wind speedextremes are investigated on the mesoscale using the COSMO-CLM model. The modellingresults reveal no differences between the ‘swans’ and ‘dragons’ situations. It could beassociated with the poor sample data used. However, according to many case studies andmodeling results we assume that it is caused by a rare superposition of large-scale synopticfactors and many local meso- and microscale factors (surface, coastline configuration, etc.).Further studies of extreme wind speeds in the Arctic, such as ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’, arenecessary to focus on non-hydrostatic high-resolution atmospheric modelling usingdownscaling techniques.
Добавил в систему: Платонов Владимир Сергеевич

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Mesoscale high-resolution modeling of extreme wind speeds over western water areas of the Russian Arcticстатья Электронная публикация

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