Аннотация:The Indo-Burman arc is the boundary between the India and Burma plates, north of the Sumatra–
Andaman subduction zone. The existence of active subduction in the Indo-Burman arc is a debatable
issue because the Indian plate converges very obliquely beneath the Burma plate. Recent GPS
measurements in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and northeast India indicate 13–17 mm/y of plate
convergence along a shallow dipping megathrust while most of the strike-slip motion occurs on
several steep faults, consistent with patterns of strain partitioning at subduction zones. A short
period of instrumentally recorded seismicity and sparse historical records are insufficient to assess
the possibility of great earthquakes at the Indo-Burman megathrust. Using the advantage of the
Block-and-Fault Dynamics model allowing simultaneous simulation of slow tectonic motions and
earthquakes, we test the hypothesis whether the India-Burma detachment is locked and able
to produce great earthquakes, or it slips aseismically? We have shown that the model of locked
detachment is preferred because it more adequately reproduces observed tectonic velocities. The
integral characteristics of synthetic seismicity, the earthquake size distribution, and the rate of
seismic activity are consistent with those derived from observations. Our results suggest that the
megathrust is locked and can generate great M8+ earthquakes. The estimated average return period
of great events exceeds one thousand years. Earthquakes of this size pose a great threat to NE India,
Bangladesh and Myanmar, the most densely populated areas of the world.