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Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of disturbed ecosystems using three-dimensional universal kriging based on sequential aerial and space surveysстатья
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
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Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 28 мая 2015 г.
- Авторы: Vinogradov B.V., Koshel S.M., Kulik K.N., Musin O.R., Fedotov P.B.
- Журнал: Doklady Biological Sciences
- Том: 371
- Номер: 1-6, March
- Год издания: 2000
- Издательство: Pleiades Publishing, Ltd
- Местоположение издательства: Road Town, United Kingdom
- Первая страница: 147
- Последняя страница: 151
- Аннотация: The experience of drawing of isolinear prognostic maps using the prognosis of desertification of pasture ecosystems of the Black Lands (Russia) for 30 years in advance (1998-2023) as an example is described. The natural vegetation of the area was grass/wormwood [Artemisia], the original soils were sandy loam, sandy, brown and semidesertic, and the main agricultural use was as pasture. During the initial stages of the study (1950-60s) the sandy soil was stably immobilized. Overgrazing in the 1970-80s by cattle increased the area of mobile sand many times and disturbed the natural vegetation and soils. In the 1990s, the cattle stock was reduced to normal pasture capacity, the soil started to normalize, amelioration began and plants began to grow over the sands. The Black Lands fall into 4 significantly different ecological classes (representing insignificant, moderate, significant and heavy desertification, i.e. zones of ecological normality, risk, crisis and disaster, respectively). Experimentally measured and prognostic trends in the dynamics of desertification of the Black Lands revealed different patterns of changes in the area of each class of desertification during 1954-2023. Analysis of prognostic maps showed a trend towards a steady decrease in the ecological disaster area during the time interval from 1993-2003 to 2003-2008, its gradual but complete disappearance and cessation of heavy desertification of the Black Lands. According to the prognosis, there is a trend towards a steady increase in the area of ecologically normal zone (insignificant desertification). Although the state of the ecological risk (the level observed before 1964-69) within the limit of confidence will be achieved by the year 2023, the state of the zone will be far from the state of the fully restored landscape. In addition, according to the long-term prognosis, the stable state that has been observed during 1959-64 is not expected to recover at all.
- Добавил в систему: Кошель Сергей Михайлович