Trends, breaks, and biases in the frequency of reported glacier lake outburst floods

Veh, G.; Lützow, N.; Kharlamova, V.; Petrakov, D.; Hugonnet, R.; Korup, O.

Авторы: Veh G., Lützow N., Kharlamova V., Petrakov D., Hugonnet R., Korup O.
Журнал: EARTHS FUTURE
Том: 10
Год издания: 2022
Издательство: Wiley And Sons
Местоположение издательства: Chichester, England
Первая страница: 1
Последняя страница: 14
Номер статьи: e2021EF002426
DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002426
Аннотация: Thousands of glacier lakes have been forming behind natural dams in high mountains followingglacier retreat since the early 20th century. Some of these lakes abruptly released pulses of water and sedimentwith disastrous downstream consequences. Yet it remains unclear whether the reported rise of these glacierlake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been fueled by a warming atmosphere and enhanced meltwater production,or simply a growing research effort. Here we estimate trends and biases in GLOF reporting based on the largestglobal catalog of 1,997 dated glacier-related floods in six major mountain ranges from 1901 to 2017. We findthat the positive trend in the number of reported GLOFs has decayed distinctly after a break in the 1970s,coinciding with independently detected trend changes in annual air temperatures and in the annual numberof field-based glacier surveys (a proxy of scientific reporting). We observe that GLOF reports and glaciersurveys decelerated, while temperature rise accelerated in the past five decades. Enhanced warming alone canthus hardly explain the annual number of reported GLOFs, suggesting that temperature-driven glacier lakeformation, growth, and failure are weakly coupled, or that outbursts have been overlooked. Indeed, our analysisemphasizes a distinct geographic and temporal bias in GLOF reporting, and we project that between two to fourout of five GLOFs on average might have gone unnoticed in the early to mid-20th century. We recommend thatsuch biases should be considered, or better corrected for, when attributing the frequency of reported GLOFs toatmospheric warming.
Добавил в систему: Петраков Дмитрий Александрович

	ИСТИНА	Войти в систему Регистрация
	ФНКЦ РР
	Главная Поиск Статистика О проекте Помощь

ИСТИНА

ФНКЦ РР

Trends, breaks, and biases in the frequency of reported glacier lake outburst floodsстатья

Прикрепленные файлы