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Storm surges and storm wind waves in the Caspian Sea in the present and future climateстатья
- Авторы: Pavlova Anna, Myslenkov Stanislav, Arkhipkin Victor, Surkova Galina
- Журнал: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
- Год издания: 2021
- Аннотация: This study is devoted to the analysis of the storm surges and wind waves in the Caspian Sea for the period from 1979 to 2017-2020. The models used are the circulation model ADCIRC and the wave model WAVEWATCH III with wind and pressure forcing from the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis. The modeling is performed on the unstructured grid with spacing to 300-700 m in the coastal zone. Mean and extreme values of surges, wave parameters, and storm activity are provided. The maximum significant wave height for the whole period amounts to 8.2 m. The average long-term SWH does not exceed 1.1 m. No significant trend in the storm activity was found. The maximum surges height amounts to 2.7 m. Analysis of the interannual variability of the surges occurrence showed that 7-10 surges with a height of more than 1 meter were obtained per year and the total duration all these surges was 20-30 days per year. Assessment of the risk of coastal flooding was carried out by calculating the extreme values of the Sea for different return periods 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The extreme sea level values in the northern part of the Caspian Sea for the return period 100 years is close to 3 m and the areas with big surges are located along the eastern and western coasts. Based on climatic scenarios of CMIP5, a forecast is made for the recurrence of storm wind waves in the 21st century. A statistically significant increase of storm waves recurrence in future was found, but it is not dramatically growing.
- Добавил в систему: Мысленков Станислав Александрович