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Challenges in the detection and attribution of Northern Hemispheresurface temperature trends since 1850статья
- Авторы: Ronan Connolly, Soon Willie, Connolly Michael, Baliunas Sallie, Berglund Johan, Butler C.J., Cionco Rodolfo Gustavo, Elias Ana G., Fedorov Valeriy, Harde Hermann, Henry Gregory W., Hoyt Douglas V., Humlum Ole, Legates David R., Scafetta Nicola, Solheim Jan-Erik, Szarka László, Velasco Herrera Víctor M., Yan Hong, Zhang Weijia
- Журнал: Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics
- Том: 24
- Номер: 7
- Год издания: 2023
- Издательство: IOP Publishing
- Местоположение издательства: [Bristol, UK], England
- Первая страница: 1
- Последняя страница: 43
- DOI: 10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e
- Аннотация: Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has heavilyrelied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature (ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused.In Connolly et al. (2021), we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution ofclimate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and STdatasets. We compiled 16 TSI and 5 ST datasets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could (prematurely) conclude anything from the warming being “mostly human-caused”to “mostly natural”. Richardson and Benestad (2022) suggested our analysis was “erroneous”and “flawed” because we did not use a multilinear regression. They argued that applying amultilinear regression to one of the 5 ST series re-affirmed the IPCC’s attribution statement.They also objected that many of the published TSI datasets were out-of-date. However, herewe show that applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated dataset of27 TSI series, the original conclusions of Connolly et al. (2021) are confirmed for all 5 STdatasets. Therefore, it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both.
- Добавил в систему: Федоров Валерий Михайлович