Assessment of possible consequences of outburst floods: case study of the Bodomdara River valley (Tajikistan)

Iudina (Kurovskaia), V.A.; Chernomorets, S.S.; Krylenko, I.N.; Vinogradova, T.A.; Krylenko, I.V.; Savernyuk, E.A.; Gulomaydarov, A.G.; Zikillobekov, I.I.; Pirmamadov, U.R.; Raimbekov, Y.K.

Авторы: Iudina (Kurovskaia) V.A., Chernomorets S.S., Krylenko I.N., Vinogradova T.A., Krylenko I.V., Savernyuk E.A., Gulomaydarov A.G., Zikillobekov I.I., Pirmamadov U.R., Raimbekov Yu Kh
Журнал: Earth's Cryosphere
Том: 26
Номер: 5
Год издания: 2022
Издательство: Izdatel'stvo Sibirskogo Otdeleniia RAN
Местоположение издательства: Russian Federation
Первая страница: 12
Последняя страница: 24
Оригинальные версии: Оценка возможных последствий прорывных паводков на примере долины реки Бодомдара (Таджикистан)
Аннотация: The prerequisites and modeling of possible outburst floods in the valley of the Bodomdara River (Tajikistan) are considered using detailed field data. According to the route survey results, Upper Bodomdara Lake is a supraglacial lake, which assumes possibility of its outburst leading to a cascade outburst flood. The depression of Lower Bodomdara Lake is relatively stable, and its outburst is possible without cascade flooding at anomalously high temperatures, upon snowmelt combined with extreme rainfall. Two probable scenarios are considered: (I) the outburst of Lower Bodomdara Lake (its volume comprised 328 000 m3 according to the bathymetric survey of 2020) and (II) the cascade outburst flood of Upper Bodomdara Lake (700 000 m3). Digital elevation model (DEM) ALOS PALSAR (12.5 m) and DEM based on images from an unmanned aerial vehicle for the Bodomdara River alluvial fan were used for predicting flood consequences. The outburst flood hydrographs for scenarios I and II were obtained using the lake outburst model developed by Yu.B. Vinogradov and an empirical formula, respectively. The material increment was estimated in the transport-shift model of debris flow formation. The resulting hydrograph was applied for zoning the Bodomdara and Shakhdara river valleys with a total length of 75 km based on the FLO-2D model. According to the modeling, the maximum water discharge at the top of the alluvial cone of the Bodomdara River will reach 143 m3/s under scenario I and 348 m3/s under scenario II.
Добавил в систему: Черноморец Сергей Семенович

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