Modelling of potential impact of climate change on water regime and channel processes in the river Lena near city Yakutsk: possibilities and limitations

Krylenko, I.N.; Pavlyukevich, E.D.; Zavadskii, A.S.; Golovlyov, P.P.; Fingert, E.A.; Borisova, N.M.; Belikov, V.V.

Авторы: Krylenko I.N., Pavlyukevich E.D., Zavadskii A.S., Golovlyov P.P., Fingert E.A., Borisova N.M., Belikov V.V.
Журнал: Geography, Environment, Sustainability
Том: 17
Номер: 4
Год издания: 2024
Издательство: Издательство Русского географического общества
Местоположение издательства: Москва
Первая страница: 112
Последняя страница: 120
DOI: 10.24057/2071-9388-2024-3723
Аннотация: STREAM_2D software package was applied to retrospective and predictive simulations of the Lena River near city Yakutsk hydraulic and channel changes during ice-free period. The modelling results indicate significant correspondence of simulated water discharges distribution and water levels with observed one, model has captured main erosion and accumulation zones observed in the 2009–2016 years. Runoff hydrographs from the ECOMAG runoff model simulations based on the data the global climate model MIROC-ESM-CHEM with daily time step for two climate scenario rcp2.6 and rcp8.5 were used as input into hydrodynamic model. Comparison of scenario, based on modern hydrographs and two scenarios, based on climate projections, have shown the changes in the range of channel-forming discharges and their duration. By the results of 20-year simulation of channel evolution for tree scenario, the position of the main areas of erosion and deposition under scenario rcp2.6 and rcp8.5 retained the same as under modern scenario, but some additional new local areas of erosion during peak flows near the banks can be formed. Erosion can increase by up to 1 - 2 meters and even more in some areas, but due to the reduced duration of channel-forming flood discharges, the shifting of some large erosion-accumulative forms is slower than in under the scenario, based on the modern hydrographs.
Добавил в систему: Павлюкевич (Корнилова) Екатерина Дмитриевна

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Modelling of potential impact of climate change on water regime and channel processes in the river Lena near city Yakutsk: possibilities and limitationsстатья

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